On pass play fumbles, there are a number of outcomes that can occur:
- the QB can fumble as a result of a sack – this happens 50% of the time
- the receiver can fumble on the pass reception – this happens 33% of the time
- the snap can be aborted – this happens 17% of the time
The APBA pass play fumble results takes account of the first two scenarios only, with a 50-50 split distribution between them
So aborted snap fumbles are not taken account of at all, except for the few that may occur on RP plays. Given that 1 in 6 of all pass play fumbles are the result of an aborted snap drove me to come up with a better way.
For aborted pass play fumbles, the following can happen:
- the offense recovers the fumble 73% of the time
- the ball goes out of bounds 3% of the time
- the QB recovers 53% of the time
- the QB then attempts to pass 28% of those times that he recovers
- the fumble is attributed to the Center 18% of the time
I’ve come up with a way to statistically replicate these figures by incorporating a new FA chart for aborted snap fumbles. You can find it here.
So when a fumble occurs from the pass play boards, you consult the FN number as usual.
If the fumble recovery occurred behind the Line, treat it as a sack-fumble at that spot. If the offense recovers, the ball is dead at that spot. You would roll as usual to identify the player who got the sack.
If the fumble recovery occurred over the Line, you would then roll a d20 (I prefer to not roll 2 dice as much as possible, because there is nothing worse than getting a 66 on a throw that is not on a play-from-scrimmage!)
– if 1-13, it is a receiver-fumble at the spot indicated;
– if 14-19, it is an aborted snap fumble. Follow procedure below;
– if 20, roll d20 again: if 1-3, it is a receiver fumble at the spot indicated;
if 4-20, it is an aborted snap fumble. Follow procedure below.
This breakdown of d20 throws replicates the 66% pass receiver fumble on those results that are for Gain, and the other 34% are aborted snaps.
Aborted Snap Fumble Procedure
For those plays identified as Aborted Snap Fumble plays, you would ignore the play result from the original fumble, and roll 2 dice again and consult the FA table.
The FA Table gives the position where the aborted snap fumble was recovered.
If the result indicates o8p, then the QB recovers the fumble and attempts a Short Pass to o11 – always use Index C and D Alignment. Ignore any play results at Line 13 or at Lines 26-36 from the Short Pass boards – read any such results as an incomplete pass. This avoids getting conflicting penalties or additional sack, scramble, fumble or RP results that would make no sense on an aborted play fumble.
If the result indicates a † then the fumble is attributed to the Center for statistical purposes.
If the result indicates d20A or d20B, then roll d20 and consult the appropriate table to determine the recovery outcome. This effectively fine-tunes the outcomes so that they statistically replicate actual results.
Happy to receive feedback as always
Phil