Pass play fumbles – a new way

Posted on August 10, 2021 by 6649er

On pass play fumbles, there are a number of outcomes that can occur:

the QB can fumble as a result of a sack – this happens 50% of the time
the receiver can fumble on the pass reception – this happens 33% of the time
the snap can be aborted – this happens 17% of the time

The APBA pass play fumble results takes account of the first two scenarios only, with a 50-50 split distribution between them
So aborted snap fumbles are not taken account of at all, except for the few that may occur on RP plays. Given that 1 in 6 of all pass play fumbles are the result of an aborted snap drove me to come up with a better way.

For aborted pass play fumbles, the following can happen:

the offense recovers the fumble 73% of the time
the ball goes out of bounds 3% of the time
the QB recovers 53% of the time
the QB then attempts to pass 28% of those times that he recovers
the fumble is attributed to the Center 18% of the time

I’ve come up with a way to statistically replicate these figures by incorporating a new FA chart for aborted snap fumbles. You can find it here.

So when a fumble occurs from the pass play boards, you consult the FN number as usual.

If the fumble recovery occurred behind the Line, treat it as a sack-fumble at that spot. If the offense recovers, the ball is dead at that spot. You would roll as usual to identify the player who got the sack.

If the fumble recovery occurred over the Line, you would then roll a d20 (I prefer to not roll 2 dice as much as possible, because there is nothing worse than getting a 66 on a throw that is not on a play-from-scrimmage!)
– if 1-13, it is a receiver-fumble at the spot indicated;
– if 14-19, it is an aborted snap fumble. Follow procedure below;
– if 20, roll d20 again: if 1-3, it is a receiver fumble at the spot indicated;
if 4-20, it is an aborted snap fumble. Follow procedure below.

This breakdown of d20 throws replicates the 66% pass receiver fumble on those results that are for Gain, and the other 34% are aborted snaps.

Aborted Snap Fumble Procedure

For those plays identified as Aborted Snap Fumble plays, you would ignore the play result from the original fumble, and roll 2 dice again and consult the FA table.

The FA Table gives the position where the aborted snap fumble was recovered.

If the result indicates o8p, then the QB recovers the fumble and attempts a Short Pass to o11 – always use Index C and D Alignment. Ignore any play results at Line 13 or at Lines 26-36 from the Short Pass boards – read any such results as an incomplete pass. This avoids getting conflicting penalties or additional sack, scramble, fumble or RP results that would make no sense on an aborted play fumble.

If the result indicates a † then the fumble is attributed to the Center for statistical purposes.

If the result indicates d20A or d20B, then roll d20 and consult the appropriate table to determine the recovery outcome. This effectively fine-tunes the outcomes so that they statistically replicate actual results.

Happy to receive feedback as always

Pass play fumbles

Phil

2-Minute Offense – Manual Timing

Posted on April 16, 2019 by 6649er

There have been a number of innovations I’ve seen recently that try to take account of the radically different timing that occurs in 2-minute offense situations.

Each to their own I say, and whatever you feel comfortable with is right for you. For me personally, I’ve used manual timing inside the 2-minute warning for some time now. In my opinion, it’s the only realistic way you can replicate hurry-up timing, or go to slow-down when a team wants to milk the clock. Manual timing involves going away from APBA’s half-play system and requires you to record the timing completely separately. For those that record play-by-play (as I do), it’s not a problem to incorporate the play clock as well.

Here is my latest version of the timing rules I use. I use manual timing inside the last 2:30 of any half or OT period. I’ve benchmarked them against more than 50 actual NFL gamebooks and they are remarkably accurate.

The timing rules require use of a Timing Chart, that lets you know how much game clock is used depending on the length of the play or return.

I’ve also developed a chart for use when the FG unit needs to hurry on at the end of the half with the clock ticking down. Is there enough time left to get the kick away?

As always, comments welcomed.

2-minute timing

Phil Molloy’s “Two-Point Conversion Chart”

Posted on December 3, 2018 by oguard62

Years ago, Phil was nice enough to post this chart (see below) on APBA Between the Lines. I’ve received two request for it over the last few days and wanted to make it available to everyone.

Two Point Conversion Chart

Penalties – an accurate distribution

Posted on March 18, 2018 by 6649er

It started with me thinking about the holding calls against the offense. How could I incorporate those instances where the holding occurred downfield and the 10 yd penalty applied from there, instead of from the line? But the more I looked into it, the more I realised that all of the penalties needed overhauling. So I looked at the 2013 season (it’s one where I have every playbook), and over a few months recorded every single penalty … 3419 all up.

Some findings:

on pass plays, the most frequent penalties were (cf. APBA’s) …
false start o 21% ( 3%) FAIL
pass interference d 12% (14%)
holding o 9% (14%)
holding d 9% ( 8%)
unnecessary roughness d 5% ( 3%)
neutral zone infraction d 5% (nil) FAIL

this compared with APBA’s (cf. ‘actuals’) …
holding o 14% ( 9%)
pass interference d 14% (12%)
holding d 8% ( 9%)
illegal contact d 8% ( 2%) FAIL
illegal formation o 6% ( 1%)
intention grounding o 6% ( 2%)
offside d 6% ( 1%)
pass interference o 6% ( 3%)
roughing passer d 6% ( 4%)

on running plays, the most frequent were (cf. APBA’s):
false start o 34% ( 3%) FAIL
holding o 20% (25%)
neutral zone infraction d 8% (nil) FAIL
delay o 8% ( 3%)
unnecessary roughness d 4% ( 6%)
encroachment d 4% ( 8%)

this compared with APBA’s (cf. ‘actuals’)
holding o 25% (20%)
offside d 14% ( 2%) FAIL
encroachment d 8% ( 4%)
holding d 6% ( 1%)
illegal block o 6% ( 1%)
illegal motion o 6% ( 0%) FAIL
facemask d 6% ( 2%)
unnecessary roughness d 6% ( 4%)
unsportsmanlike d 6% ( 0%) FAIL

so you can see that the distribution of penalties is way off. In particular, the failure to recognise that the most common penalty – False Start – is not represented appropriately bothered me. Of course a lot of it is a result of trying to squeeze in all the offense and defense fouls into 36 possible outcomes – it’s a hell of a lot better then the previous method which only had 11 outcomes – but it’s still nowhere near close enough (for me).

So how can it be done better? Simple – introduce 1 more die into the penalty roll. Same roll, just with 1 more die. That gives you 216 possible outcomes and you can model the distribution much more accurately.

Another thing I thought a lot about was the pass interference penalty. That 12% included all types of passes – long, medium and short passes – and we all know that there are a LOT more flags thrown on the long ones than the shorter ones. So I introduced different distributions depending on what type of pass you threw:
short & screen (S)
medium (M)
long (L)

so now we have the following distributions for defensive pass interference:
S 9%
M 17%
L 29%

Using these with conventional pass distribution usage will come pretty close to the actual figure.

I’ve looked at all of the penalties and redone them (mostly) with the extra die.

I changed some of the existing penalties to new ones as well:
1.Clipping – Offense is now 1.Facemask – Offense (clipping hardly ever was called, and there was no Facemask o)
5.Grasping Facemask – Defense is now 5.Neutral Zone Infraction – Defense (Facemasks are now 15 yarders when called, and there was no NZ Infraction d)
8.Illegal Block – Offense is now 8.Illegal Block Above the Waist – Offense (this one is 10 whereas all the other illegal blocks are 15 yarders)
15.Ineligible receiver downfield – Offense is now 15.Illegal Use of Hands – Defense (Ineligible Receiver d/f is now a 5 yarder and can be covered by Ineligible Player d/f, and there was no Illegal Use of Hands d)
30. Twisting Facemask – Defense is now just 30. Facemask – Defense (‘cos they don’t differentiate between grasping, twisting, turning, pushing or pulling; since 2008 it’s all just a 15 yard Facemask)

new penalties are:
36.Horse Collar Tackle – Defense
37.Illegal Touch of Forward Pass – Offense
38.Twelve Players on the Field – Offense
39.Illegal Chop Block – Offense
40.Invalid Fair Catch signal – Offense
41.Illegal Substitution – Defense
42.Delay of Game (after play) – Defense
43.Illegal Cut Block – Offense
44.Illegal Peelback Block – Defense
45.Delay of Game (after play) – Offense
46.Tripping – Defense
48.Taunting – Defense
49.Taunting – Offense
50.Offside – Offense
51.Delay of Game – Defense
52.Illegal Peelback Block – Offense
53.Illegal Touch of Kick – Offense
54.Player out of bounds on Kick – Offense
55.Illegal Formation – Defense
56.Illegal Blindside Block – Offense
57.Illegal Touch of Kick – Defense
58.Illegal Low Block – Offense
59.Illegal Low Block – Defense

All of these penalties will now be called more accurately according to their actual distribution.

Also I’ve done a ‘Special Penalty’ table for offensive holding, illegal-use-of-hands, and illegal block penalties, as well as live ball Personal Fouls, Unnecessary Roughness and Unsportsmanlike penalties by the offense. This table can be used when these penalties are called on running plays, passing plays for gain, and punt & KO returns, where the foul occurred either over the line or during the return. In these situations, the penalty is assessed from the point of the foul, not the line of scrimmage or point of possession. These are all based on the actual statistical spread of penalty enforcement locations.

And, I’ve introduced a No-Penalty result on kickoffs, because there just aren’t that many flags on the kickoff. Including kickoffs-out-of-bounds, I counted just 46 penalties all 2013 season on KO’s (I’m not talking about returns here, just the KO part). With 2684 kickoffs and (typically) 3 penalty numbers on KO cards, the cards would otherwise produce over 220 penalties for the season!

Similarly, on punt returns, the opposite occurs – there are actually a lot more penalties than the cards can produce. Typically there are 3 penalty numbers on PR cards, but there should be more like 7 to reproduce the actual number of penalties. I fix this by rolling an extra die on the punt return roll. If it is a 1, there is an automatic flag on the play. This would result in a 24% penalty percentage – that’s too high (it should be about 20%), so I introduce some No-Penalty TQ rolls to correct the percentage to reproduce the actual figure of just under 20%

I also separated KO return penalties (as TKO) from TK because they were completely different in their type & distribution. And with typically 3 penalty numbers on KO return cards, they also generated too many penalties.

Lastly, you may notice that I do pass interference penalties different to APBA and others. First, I think you should be able to decline the penalty and accept the completion. I don’t believe it skews the stats that much and it’s much more intuitive to me. Second, on incompletions I use the interception identifier columns to determine where the pass interference occurred. It seems more logical to me to do it this way.

Hope you find these useful. Feedback (and corrections) welcomed.

Version 2.0 Released

Added 10-June-2018: I have now released version 2.0 of the charts. I’ve revised them based on more research – specifically another full season, this time 2015.

This has resulted in me splitting TQ and TK into their own charts, and some changes to punt return procedure – now you ignore the penalty numbers coming from the returner’s card, and just rely on the third die you would roll to generate the penalty. Same with onside kickoffs – ignore the penalties off of the kicker’s card, and just rely on the third die you would roll to generate the penalty. There were just so many penalties on these plays that it was simpler just to do this.

Another change I made was to get rid of the Personal Foul penalty. In 2015, they only had Unnecessary Roughness and Unsportsmanlike fouls, with no Personal Fouls. So I followed suit. To be honest, I could never understand why we needed 3 types of personal fouls anyway.

The other significant change I made was to the Special Penalty Chart for fouls by the offense. I researched more thoroughly the types of fouls, when they occurred, and the typical distance applicable.

Feedback and corrections welcomed

Version 2.1 Released

Added 30-Oct-2018: fixed some errors in the charts and made some improvements.

New Penalty Charts v2.1

~~New Penalty Charts v2.0~~ now superseded by v2.1

~~New Penalty Charts v1.0~~ now superseded by v2.0

as always, feedback and corrections welcomed.

thanks, Phil

Introducing – Phil Molloy

Posted on October 4, 2017 by oguard62

I would like to introduce the newest “author” and final member of the team, Mr. Phil Molloy. Phil has been a fixture in APBA Football for several years and I consider him one of the finest innovator’s this game has ever seen. It was Phil who first created and posted the “Dice Range Calculator” that has been a staple of my replays for many years. Are you looking for an alternative for fumbles or new play boards for surprise on-side kicks, Hail Mary, and a variance for special team’s plays? Look no farther, just click on the “Phil Molloy” widget under the Categories section of the site. In the summer of 2013, I enlisted Phil’s assistance to create an innovation for the “Read Option”. I told him that I wanted it to be triggered off the inside run, work in conjunction with “fletch67” and require only one additional dice roll. Phil didn’t disappoint, in my humble opinion, it’s his finest innovation to date.

I’m so happy that Phil finally accepted my invitation. Phil’s life in the Australia is quite hectic, so he will contribute whenever his schedule allows him to. Whenever that time is, I know the APBA Football community will be the beneficiary.

“Read Option” Solution

Posted on July 16, 2013 by oguard62

It still remains to be seen if NFL defensive coordinators have solved the “Read Option” dilemma, however, thanks to Phil Molloy, APBA Football players now have a solution. I asked Phil to create a system for solitaire play that was triggered off the “Inside Run”, worked in conjunction with “Fletch67” and only required one additional dice roll. After a little back and forth, it was decided the system must provide a “quota” that accurately reflects real-time usage of the “Read Option” and the flexibility to work even if the Game Company gives more scramble numbers to reflect the additional runs from the option.

So before we can simulate Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris executing the “Read Option” from our tabletop, we must establish the quota. Using the “Read Option” tab, you must enter data into the following cells:

M2 – Total runs by QB per game (actual stats)
M3 – Scrambles by QB per game (actual stats or assumptions)
M4 – Designed bootleg runs by QB per game (actual stats or assumptions)
M6 – Pass attempts per game by QB (actual stats, not counting sacks or scrambles)
M7 – Total sacks sustained by QB per game (actual stats)
M8 – Total scramble numbers (26/27) from QB’s card

Using RG III as an example:

M2 – RG III averaged 8 runs per game
M3 – In accordance with an article from the USA Today, 70 of RG III’s 120 total runs were designed runs resulting in 50 QB scrambles (3 per game).
M4 – I will leave this at “1” since APBA considers this a “Trick Play”
M6 – Pass attempts divided games played (393/15=26.2). Enter 26.
M7 – Times sacked divided by games played (30/15=2)
M8 – If APBA gives RG III five scramble numbers his quota would be “5”. Four scramble numbers would be a quota of “7”. Three scramble numbers would be a quota of “9”

Hypothetically, let’s say APBA gives RG III 5 scramble numbers (quota of 5) and he is facing a defensive unit with a run rating of 37. Using the “dice chart” tab, the gamer would find column 5 from the quota per game (top row) and 37 from the run defense total (left-side) and locate the intersection to determine the dice roll (56-66). Armed with this knowledge let’s go through the sequence of the “Read-Option” using the above RG III/Alfred Morris example. In your mind’s eye, picture RG III calling an inside run for Alfred Morris, breaking the huddle and lining up in the “Pistol” formation. If Fletch67 determines the defense is in “G’ alignment, RG III hands the ball off to Alfred Morris and the play result is determined by his card. If the defensive alignment is either “S” or “D”, roll the dice and if the result is 11-55 the defender maintains outside containment resulting in an inside run by Alfred Morris. If the dice roll was 56-66, the defender crashed down the line of scrimmage resulting in RG III tucking the ball and running outside.

I used this system during last night’s game between the 2011 Denver Broncos and New York Jets. Tim Tebow’s card is unique (4-6-8-15-17-19) to replicate his style of rushing inside from the shotgun formation; however, he did have success running outside with the “Read Option”. Tim averaged 8.7 carries per game in real-life, during last night’s replay he rushed 7 times (1 scramble, 2 called inside runs and 4 “Read Option” outside runs).

I want to sincerely thank Mr. Phil Molloy for his time and efforts; I believe this is his greatest innovation to date and will enhance the gaming experience while maintaining realism.

Read Option Solution

Performance of “Dice Range Calculator” (Receptions)

Posted on May 29, 2013 by oguard62

The “mean” average of the difference between actual and replay statistics was 6.75. This is an acceptable difference, especially since only a single dice roll is required to determine the intented receiver compared to potentially needing multiple dice rolls to identify a starting receiver using the locator columns. In addition, compare the average of “Yards per Reception” to see the full benefit of using Mark Zarb’s “Yard per Catch” innovation.

		Receiving
Player	Tm	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD

Jimmy Graham	NOR	45	674	14.98	5
Darren Sproles	NOR	45	329	7.31	2
Greg Jennings	GNB	42	677	16.12	5
Calvin Johnson	DET	41	679	16.56	10
Steve Smith	CAR	39	818	20.97	3
Roddy White	ATL	39	425	10.90	3
Matt Forte	CHI	38	419	11.03	1
Brandon Pettigrew	DET	38	352	9.26	2
Jeremy Maclin	PHI	37	489	13.22	3
Jason Witten	DAL	36	449	12.47	3
Tony Gonzalez	ATL	35	380	10.86	4
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	32	508	15.88	3

Receiving:		Rec	Yards	Avg.	Long	TD
Graham	NOS	55	843	15.3	80	9
White	ATL	50	572	11.4	48	3
S. Smith	CAR	48	873	18.2	51	5
Johnson	DET	41	779	19.0	73	10
Sproles	NOS	39	270	6.9	65	1
Pettigrew	DET	37	500	13.5	72	4
Gonzalez	ATL	36	385	10.7	45	1
Nicks	NYG	34	618	18.2	80	5
Witten	DAL	34	510	15.0	70	5
G. Jennings	GBP	30	396	13.2	55	4
Macklin	PHI	27	356	13.2	33	2
Forte	CHI	21	121	5.8	54	0

Phil Molloy “Fumble” Innovations

Posted on February 21, 2013 by oguard62

Mr. Phil Molloy was kind enough to share another innovation with the APBA Football community. His latest contribution is a “Fumble Adjustment” and “Kick Fumble” charts. Detailed instructions are provided within each document and appear very user-friendly.

fumble adjustment kick-fumbles

Phil Molloy Innovations

Posted on April 29, 2012 by oguard62

Phil Molloy is an avid player of APBA football who has created several outstanding innovations over the years. His dicerangecalculator offers a great alternative to the Locator columns (page B-13 of the Master game booklet) for determining receptions, interceptions and sacks. This innovation renders outstanding results, speeds up replay time and accurately reflect substitutions and personnel packages used during the course of an actual game. Just type names and statistics into columns A and B to generate dice roll numbers. In the event of an injury and a reserve player (non-starter) is awarded the reception, sack or interception, refer to the “Substitution” table (tab located in new_plays) to determine which code number the reserve player was occupying prior to checking the injury table (B-19). For example, 1998 NY Jet’s reserve outside linebacker, Chad Cascadden, is awarded the sack; I will check the “Substitution” table to determine if he is at d6 or d7.

Phil has created several new plays (QB sneak, Hail Mary, & surprise on-side kick), alternative for blitzing, and variances to special team’s plays (touchbacks, maximum rush to block a punt, & punts land within the 9-yard line) that I’ve thoroughly enjoyed for several years now.

Oguard62

In pursuit of the perfect replay

Category Archives: Phil Molloy