Special Thanks to P. Molloy/G. Wells

Now that the 2011 NFL season replay is finally complete, I wanted to take the time to thank a couple of people for their contributions.  When I first began the project, I noticed that the fumble numbers were way above league averages.  Mr. Greg Wells was nice enough to send me the “Fumble Frequency Numbers” innovation that was posted in the APBA Journal many years ago. I implemented this innovation on game 70 of the replay and was extremely pleased with the “per game” results (AFC – Replay 2.3/Actual 2.6) (NFC – Replay 2.2/Actual 2.5).

The other person that I would like to thank is Mr. Phil Molloy.  After posting the box score of my first game of the replay back in November 2012, he sends me an email informing me that the formula I’m using for “Yards Gained (Net) per Pass Play” was incorrect.  His attention to detail is off the charts and I always appreciate him not embarrassing me in a public forum.  With his assistance, we corrected this imperfection.  I thoroughly enjoyed using his “Read Option” innovation when playing with Cam Newton, Tim Tebow and Michael Vick. It brought an added touch of “realism” to the game.  If this replay did anything for me, it validated the accuracy of his “Dice Range Calculator” with regard to receptions, sacks and interceptions.  I couldn’t have been more pleased with the results especially in the receiving category.  I highly recommend taking a look at 2011 NFC Stats/2011 AFC Stats to compare receptions against actual performance.

Thank you gentlemen!

Public Perception

Super Bowl XLVI

Sunday, February 5, 2012     

Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana 

San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots

The Battle of the Undefeated!!! In all of the replays that I’ve conducted over the years, I’ve never had a championship match as interesting as this one.  As anxious as I am to see who will come out on top, I will not “roll this game” until the morning of Saturday, 18 January.  I will provide a play-by-play synopsis and post after the completion of each quarter.  I will tweet interesting tidbits during the course of the game.  I’ve attached a presentation so you can see how the two teams stack up against each other in offensive/defensive indexes, team statistics, key matchups and keys for victory.

Super Bowl XLVI

Championship Games

The home teams will be the surviving playoff winners with the highest seeds. A Wild Card team cannot play host unless two Wild Card teams are in the game, in which case the Wild Card team that was seeded highest in the first round of the playoffs will be the home team.

Sunday, January 22, 2012                American Football Conference

                                                            Pittsburgh (14-4-0) at New England (17-0-0)

                                                            National Football Conference

                                                            New Orleans (15-3-0) at San Francisco (17-0-0)

Divisional Playoff Games Site Priorities

In each conference, the two division champions with the highest won-lost-tied percentage during the regular season will play host to the Wild Card winners.  The division champion with the best record in each conference is assured of playing the lowest seeded Wild Card Survivor. There are no restrictions on intra-division games.

Saturday, January 14, 2012             American Football Conference

                                                          Miami (11-6-0) at New England (16-0-0)

                                                          National Football Conference

                                                          New Orleans (14-3-0) at Green Bay (14-2-0)

Sunday, January 15, 2012              American Football Conference

                                                          Pittsburgh (13-4-0) at Houston (12-4-0)

                                                          National Football Conference

                                                          New York (12-5-0) at San Francisco (16-0-0)

Injury Report

New York Giants:  Center – Dave Baas is questionable entering Wild Card weekend and will not be available until the 2nd quarter.  Since Zak DeOssie is the only other lineman carded as center, the Giants will begin the game with an offensive index of 41/39.

Oakland Raiders:  Center – Samson Satele is out and will not be available until the AFC Championship weekend (miss 2 games). In the interim, left guard, Stephan Wisniewski, will move to center and Stephen Heyer will be inserted at left guard.  The Raiders offense will begin the game with a reduced index of 34/35.

Baltimore Ravens:  Left Inside Line Backer, Ray Lewis is out and will not be available until the AFC Championship weekend (miss 2 games).  Albert McClellan will be inserted into the starting lineup; reducing the defensive index to 42/42.

Wild Card Playoff Games Site Priorities

Two Wild Card teams (division non-champions with best two records) from each conference and the division champions with the third and fourth best record in each conference will enter the first round of the playoffs.  The division champion with the third best record will play host to the Wild Card team with the second best record. The division champion with the fourth best record will play host to the Wild Card team with the best record. There are no restrictions on intra-division games.

Saturday, January 7, 2012               American Football Conference

                                                           Baltimore (10-6-0) at Pittsburgh (12-4-0)

                                                           National Football Conference

                                                           Atlanta (12-4-0) at New Orleans (13-3-0)

Sunday, January 8, 2012                 American Football Conference

                                                           Miami (10-6-0) at Oakland (12-4-0)

                                                           National Football Conference

                                                           Detroit (12-4-0) at New York (11-5-0)