NFC Playoff Scenario

Entering the final week of the season, the divisional champions are as follows:

  • The New York Giants won the East.
    • If Philadelphia and New York end season with identical records, New York won both Head-to-Head matchups against Philadelphia.
  • The Green Bay Packers won the North.
  • Undecided.
    • New Orleans Saints can win the division with a win AND an Atlanta loss.
    • Atlanta Falcons wins division with a win OR identical records.
      • Atlanta has better winning percentage against division opponents.
  • San Francisco 49ers won the West.

The top 4 seeds will be determined as follows:

  • San Francisco will be the first seed with a WIN OR Green Bay loss.
  • Green Bay will be the first seed with a WIN AND San Francisco loss.
    • Green Bay owns strength of schedule tie breaker
    • The #2 seed will be the either San Francisco or Green Bay.
    • The #3 seed will be the winner of the NFC South
    • The #4 seed is the New York Giants

  Wildcard slots 5 and 6 will be determined as follows:

  • If Atlanta wins NFC South, New Orleans would be the fifth seed since they won their Head-to-Head matchup against Detroit. Detroit would be the sixth seed.
  • If New Orleans wins NFC South, Detroit would be the fifth seed since they won their Head-to-Head matchup against Atlanta.  Atlanta would be the sixth seed.

AFC Playoff Scenario

All AFC games have been completed for week 16.  Entering the final week of the season, the divisional champions are as follows:

  • The New England Patriots won the East.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers won the North.
  • The Houston Texans won the South.
  • The Oakland Raiders won the West.

The number #1 seed is the New England Patriots.  Seeds 2 through 4 will be determined by the following scenarios:

  • If all three teams (Houston, Pittsburgh, and Oakland) finish with identical records: Houston will be the #2 seed since they beat both Pittsburgh and Oakland in Head-to-Head matchups. Pittsburgh will be the #3 seed since they own the better conference record compared to Oakland. Oakland would have the #4 seed.
  • If Houston loses their final game and Pittsburgh/Oakland both win their remaining game: Pittsburgh would be the #2 seed, Oakland would be the #3 seed and Houston would be the #4 seed.
  • If Houston/Oakland both lose and Pittsburgh wins:  Pittsburgh would be #2 seed, Houston would be #3, and Oakland would be #4.
  • If Oakland loses their final game they automatically become the fourth seed since they lost both tie-breakers (Head-to-Head and conference record).
  • If Oakland wins final game and Houston/Pittsburgh each lose: Oakland would be the #2 seed, Houston would be #3, and Pittsburgh would be #4 seed.

Miami and Baltimore enter the final week with identical records (9-6); however, Miami has already secured one of the two “Wildcard” spots.   Miami won their head-to-head matchup against San Diego and has a better winning percentage against common opponents when compared to Tennessee.  San Diego is still mathematically alive at (8-7) because they won their head-to-head matchup against Baltimore.  Although Tennessee has the same record as San Diego (8-7), they are eliminated because they lost their face-to-face matchup against Baltimore and have a lower winning percentage against common opponents when compared against Miami and San Diego. The following scenarios will determine the final “Wildcard” slot:

  • Baltimore wins OR San Diego loses. Baltimore can secure the fifth seed with a win and a Miami loss.
  • San Diego wins AND Baltimore loses.  Miami would be fifth seed and San Diego would be sixth seed.
  • Miami secures the fifth seed with a win OR Baltimore loss.  Miami owns better “Strength of Victory” tie breaker over Baltimore.

“First Down” Machine

I’m unaware of what the NFL record for most first downs in a game is, however, during yesterday’s “Saints – Vikings” matchup (game 216) I witnessed a personal best.  Drew Brees and company racked up 43 first downs for a total of 651  net yards of offense on 82 plays from scrimmage. Incredible offensive performance!!!

Why I Love APBA Football

Without a doubt, my favorite aspect of APBA Football is reviewing the overall team statistics of my replays against the actual statistics. Earlier today I finished a game between the Miami Dolphins and the Philadelphia Eagles and was amazed at the accuracy of the offensive statistics of both teams after 13 games.  After all these years of playing this game, I’m still in awe of how a dice driven game can render such results when played realistically.  This is just another small example of my “Pursuit of the Perfect Replay.”

 

2011 Miami Dolphins Won Loss
Games Played

13

8

5

Offensive Stats:

Replay

Actual

First Downs

244

18.8

17.9

Rushes

360

27.7

29.3

 Yards Gained (Net)

1649

126.8

124.2

 Average Gain

4.6

4.2

Passes Attempted

365

28.1

29.3

 Completed

218

16.8

17.5

 Percent Completed

59.7

59.7

59.7

 Total Yards Gained

2740

210.8

214.1

 Passer Tackled

43

3.3

3.3

      Yards Lost

310

20.9

 Net Yards Gained

2430

186.9

193.2

 Yards Gained (Net) Per Pass Play

5.96

5.9

 Yards Gained Per Completion

12.57

12.2

Net Yards Gained
 Rushing and Passing

4079

313.8

317.4

 Percent Total Yards – Rushing

40.43

39.1

 Percent Total Yards – Passing

59.57

60.9

Ball Control Plays

768

59.1

61.9

 Average Gain (Net)

5.3

5.1

 

2011 Philadelphia Eagles Won Loss
Games Played

13

7

6

Offensive Stats:

Replay

Actual

First Downs

311

23.9

22.3

Rushes

370

28.5

28.1

 Yards Gained (Net)

1796

138.2

142.3

 Average Gain

4.9

5.1

Passes Attempted

451

34.7

34.6

 Completed

262

20.2

20.6

 Percent Completed

58.1

58.1

59.6

 Total Yards Gained

3570

274.6

267.3

 Passer Tackled

25

1.9

2.0

      Yards Lost

167

10.4

 Net Yards Gained

3403

261.8

256.9

 Yards Gained (Net) Per Pass Play

7.15

7.0

 Yards Gained Per Completion

13.63

13.0

Net Yards Gained
 Rushing and Passing

5199

399.9

399.1

 Percent Total Yards – Rushing

34.55

35.6

 Percent Total Yards – Passing

65.45

64.4

Ball Control Plays

846

65.1

64.8

 Average Gain (Net)

6.1

6.2