Dan Flynn’s “Yards per Catch” Innovation

Mr. Dan Flynn is an avid APBA Football player who recently contacted me regarding a Yards per Catch (YPC) innovation that he created. His “YardsPerCatch” spreadsheet allows the calculation of YPC ratings.  It also includes the chart used to determine the adjusted yardages.  The system allows for a range of YPC ratings from -5 to 10.  These ratings when used with the chart included will adjust the receivers YPC to more closely match their actual YPC. Mark Zarb and I reviewed the innovation and provided feedback. After several back and forth emails, Dan was nice enough to provide me with the finalized YPC spreadsheet and his methodology behind creating the innovation to share with the community. The instructions for usage are inside the spreadsheet.

I would like to thank Dan for all his hard work and attention to detail in creating this fine innovation. A job well done!

Dan Flynn’s YardsPerCatchUpdate

Dan Flynn’s Methodology for YPC Innovation

Shane Gleeson’s “Play Calling” Program

CFB Play Selection

This morning I received an email from a gentleman named, David Macias, introducing a “Play Calling” program for College APBA Football. A little background, although David is a lifelong APBA Baseball guy, he recently dived into APBA Football. He hired his friend, Mr. Shane Gleeson, to create an Excel play calling program that would disperse the rushes and pass attempts realistically among the players on a team based on their real-life stats. Dave has been using it for his 2019-2020 college replays and is extremely pleased with how well it has worked. The “Play Calling’ program scrubs the Sports Reference pages for the team and individual stats and has a two-tiered decision model. Say a team runs 60% of the time, it will call for 60% run plays (or thereabouts) using the random number function. Once a run has been established, it will then look at the number of rushing attempts and dole out the carries based on the percentages each player ran the ball. David recommends employing a “common sense” manual override for situational downs. For example, always call a pass play on second down and long or on more or third and medium/long situations. He always calls a run on third or fourth down and short situations (1 or 2 yards). Just refresh the screen (pressing F9 key) until you get either the applicable pass or run call.

What I love about the program too is that he added a yearly function in there so that you can go back and pull up any year you want as well. He is nearly complete with an NFL version of this “Play Calling” system.

Mr. Shane Gleeson owns the “intellectual rights” to this innovation. I have received his permission to make this available to the public free of charge with the caveat he receives the recognition. In addition, he is available to do custom work if anyone has any ideas for upgrades to this existing program or the creation of any new project. Shane’s contact information is s.gleeson@outlook.com.

Managing “QB Rushing Attempts”

So you are thinking about replaying the Chicago Bears 1972 season and have concerns that Bobby Douglass won’t reach his total amount of rushing attempts (141). Will additional called runs be required? If so, how many are required? This video answers those questions with a simple math-based, two-step process that are applicable to both either mobile or non-mobile quarterbacks.   

QB Rush Deficit Calculator

2-Minute Offense – Manual Timing

There have been a number of innovations I’ve seen recently that try to take account of the radically different timing that occurs in 2-minute offense situations.

Each to their own I say, and whatever you feel comfortable with is right for you. For me personally, I’ve used manual timing inside the 2-minute warning for some time now. In my opinion, it’s the only realistic way you can replicate hurry-up timing, or go to slow-down when a team wants to milk the clock. Manual timing involves going away from APBA’s half-play system and requires you to record the timing completely separately. For those that record play-by-play (as I do), it’s not a problem to incorporate the play clock as well.

Here is my latest version of the timing rules I use. I use manual timing inside the last 2:30 of any half or OT period. I’ve benchmarked them against more than 50 actual NFL gamebooks and they are remarkably accurate.

The timing rules require use of a Timing Chart, that lets you know how much game clock is used depending on the length of the play or return.

I’ve also developed a chart for use when the FG unit needs to hurry on at the end of the half with the clock ticking down. Is there enough time left to get the kick away?

As always, comments welcomed.

2-minute timing

Macro or Auto-Sort “Standings”

In this corner, we have the number 1 contender, Auto-sort, versus the champion, Macros, in a title bout for the “Most User-friendly APBA Football Standings”. In this title bout the APBA Football community is the winner because both methods are tremendous timesavers. I’m always looking for ways to improve all facets (preparation, method of play, data input and reporting) of my replays and am blessed to have really smart friends. Denny Hodge created the auto-sort version and my APBA Football brother, Mark Zarb, created the macro-version.

These standings are designed to use in conjunction with the team workbooks that I posted a few days back. All you have to do is link each teams win, loss, tie, points scored and points allowed to the template. If using the auto-sort workbook, just link to gray-colored section.

Usage is very simple, for the auto-sort just open the file and the standings automatically adjust for each team’s winning percentage. For the macro version, just simultaneously press CTRL R keys and each divisions winning percentage is sorted. Press a second time and each divisions win record is sorted and press a third time and each division is alphabetically for teams with identical records. These functions happen a mind-numbing speed.

I know which one is my favorite but they are both winners in my book! Unfortunately WordPress doesn’t allow macro files to be inserted into a post but if interested email me at greg.barath@oguard62.net and I will send you the file.

2002 Standings(auto sort)

Tweaks to Existing Innovations & Introducing a New One

For several years now, Mark Zarb and I have corroborated numerous innovations and ideas with regard to APBA Football. Mark is the “brains”, he comes up with the conceptual ideas and transforms them into procedures or innovations. I apply those ideas/innovations to my replays to determine the effectiveness. Now, that Mark is playing full-time, we have double the data points to determine if it “works or not”.

The primary reason I replayed the 1969 AFL season was to be able to compare the statistics of the two replays. The following is the four objectives that I evaluated:

Objective 1. Assess adjustment to Fletch67 defensive ratings and Key against the Run.

Objective 2. Assess change to Double Coverage (Keying) formula for both Neutral and Situational downs.

Objective 3. Assess if change to “Situational Down and Distance” chart affected opponent’s ability to convert third down.

Objective 4. Assess frequency and playability of new “Pass Rush Impact” innovation.

Test Report 



Oguard’s take on “Home Field Advantage”

There has been a lot of talk about “Home Field Advantage” lately and it occurred to me that all the focus has been on the team’s performance (record) while playing in their home stadium. Last Sunday while I was watching the fourth quarter of the Cincinnati – Denver game it occurred to me that at times, it’s the venue itself that provides the advantage or disadvantage. Without question, the Broncos have a distinct advantage playing at home because they are acclimated to the altitude. During that fourth quarter, I witnessed three different Cincinnati players all pull up lame due to altitude related (cramping, shortness of breath, etc.) symptoms.

So for a quick moment, let’s take our focus off the teams on the gridiron and focus on the stadium itself and its fan base. I’m sure there is more but three topics come to mind: penalties (false starts), injuries, and the kicking game.

Let’s talk about injuries. My recommendation is teams visiting Sports Authority Field at Mile High automatically have one point added to their J-rating for players who are J1 through J-3. This could provide a realistic home field advantage to the Broncos. Now let’s focus on the playing surface, nine NFL stadiums currently have Field Turf (Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, St. Louis, Seattle and the new Meadowlands Stadium) which has been proven to cause a higher rate for ankle sprains. So whenever an injury occurs and the player is identified, why not roll one die and if the dice roll is a “six”, that player sprained his ankle and his effectiveness is reduced by one-point for the remainder of the game.

What impact does the fans have on the game? Just ask one of the crazed “12th” men at CenturyLink Field because they have caused more false start penalties over last three years than any other venue in the league. Here are the top five “loudest” stadiums which have contributed to the most false starts over the last three years.

  • CenturyLink Field
  • Arrowhead
  • University of Phoenix Stadium
  • Mercedes-Benz superdome
  • Lambeau Field

Food for thought, whenever the opponent is playing in one of the above venues and its third and long (greater than 7 yards), roll one die and if it is a “six” the crowd noise resulted in a false start penalty.

Last but not least, let’s look at weather conditions. NFL teams with open-air stadiums ranked by average wind speeds (windiest to least windy)

  • Buffalo/Orchard Park, New York 16.1
  • New England/Foxborough, Massachusetts 14.5
  • New York Giants/East Rutherford, New Jersey 10.1 New York Jets/East Rutherford, New Jersey 10.1
  • Kansas City, Missouri 10.6
  • San Francisco/Santa Clara, California 10.6
  • Cleveland, Ohio 10.5
  • Chicago, Illinois 10.3
  • Green Bay, Wisconsin 10.0
  • Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 9.5
  • Washington/Landover, Maryland 9.4
  • Miami Gardens, Florida 9.2
  • Cincinnati, Ohio 9.0
  • Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 9.0
  • Oakland, California 8.8
  • Seattle, Washington 8.8
  • Baltimore, Maryland 8.7
  • Denver, Colorado 8.7
  • Tampa, Florida 8.3
  • Nashville, Tennessee 8.0
  • Jacksonville, Florida 7.8
  • Charlotte, North Carolina 7.4
  • San Diego, California 7.0

This results in a mean average of 9.65, so let’s round it up to 10. Using a +2/-2 rule, if the venue you are playing at is between 12 to 8 rated, you will read the board result from the Master game booklet in accordance by rules (i.e., by quarter 1-3 and 2-4). If the venue is greater than 3 (Gillette Stadium or New Era Field (formerly Rich or Ralph Wilson) you will always use the worst line result for the visiting kicker. For stadiums with less than 3 or dome stadiums, both team’s kickers will use the more favorable column.

These are just subtle nuances that could have a major impact if it occurs at the critical juncture of a contest. Food for thought, would love to hear anyone’s thought on the matter.