AFC Playoff Scenario

All AFC games have been completed for week 16.  Entering the final week of the season, the divisional champions are as follows:

  • The New England Patriots won the East.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers won the North.
  • The Houston Texans won the South.
  • The Oakland Raiders won the West.

The number #1 seed is the New England Patriots.  Seeds 2 through 4 will be determined by the following scenarios:

  • If all three teams (Houston, Pittsburgh, and Oakland) finish with identical records: Houston will be the #2 seed since they beat both Pittsburgh and Oakland in Head-to-Head matchups. Pittsburgh will be the #3 seed since they own the better conference record compared to Oakland. Oakland would have the #4 seed.
  • If Houston loses their final game and Pittsburgh/Oakland both win their remaining game: Pittsburgh would be the #2 seed, Oakland would be the #3 seed and Houston would be the #4 seed.
  • If Houston/Oakland both lose and Pittsburgh wins:  Pittsburgh would be #2 seed, Houston would be #3, and Oakland would be #4.
  • If Oakland loses their final game they automatically become the fourth seed since they lost both tie-breakers (Head-to-Head and conference record).
  • If Oakland wins final game and Houston/Pittsburgh each lose: Oakland would be the #2 seed, Houston would be #3, and Pittsburgh would be #4 seed.

Miami and Baltimore enter the final week with identical records (9-6); however, Miami has already secured one of the two “Wildcard” spots.   Miami won their head-to-head matchup against San Diego and has a better winning percentage against common opponents when compared to Tennessee.  San Diego is still mathematically alive at (8-7) because they won their head-to-head matchup against Baltimore.  Although Tennessee has the same record as San Diego (8-7), they are eliminated because they lost their face-to-face matchup against Baltimore and have a lower winning percentage against common opponents when compared against Miami and San Diego. The following scenarios will determine the final “Wildcard” slot:

  • Baltimore wins OR San Diego loses. Baltimore can secure the fifth seed with a win and a Miami loss.
  • San Diego wins AND Baltimore loses.  Miami would be fifth seed and San Diego would be sixth seed.
  • Miami secures the fifth seed with a win OR Baltimore loss.  Miami owns better “Strength of Victory” tie breaker over Baltimore.

Performance of “Dice Range Calculator” (Sacks)

I’m a big fan of Phil Molloy’s “Dice Range Calculator” to determine receivers and defenders who were awarded a sack or interception versus using the “Locator” boards.  With that being said, I wanted to compare the actual top-12 NFC sack leaders through week 8 of the 2011 season against their replay statistics.  The actual statistics were derived from Pro-Football and are listed below in hyperlinks and the replay results are text only.   The big overachiever is Cliff Avril, however, he had a four sack game which contributed to his high sack total. The one underachiever is Osi Umenyiora, but he missed time due to injury during the replay which eliminated some of his opportunities.  The “mode” average of the difference between actual and replay statistics is “1”. In addition, it was nice to see that my “Half-Sack” innovation did not have a negative impact on the overall statistics.   


Sacks & Tackles




Jared Allen MIN


DeMarcus Ware DAL


Jason Babin PHI


Jason Pierre-Paul NYG


Charles Johnson CAR


Aldon Smith SFO


Chris Long RAM


Osi Umenyiora NYG


Cliff Avril DET


Chris Clemons SEA


Cullen Jenkins PHI


Kyle Vanden Bosch DET





Ware DAL


Avril DET


J. Allen MIN


Pierre-Paul NYG


Babin PHI


Long STL


Clemons SEA


Ald. Smith SFO


Johnson CAR


Jenkins PHI


Vanden Bosch DET


Umenyiora NYG